Impact of Health Expenditures, and Education on Life Expectancy in Pakistan: Evidence from Time Series Data

Abstract

Background: Life expectancy is a key indicator of social welfare and human development, and it is influenced by health system investment, educational attainment, income levels, and demographic pressures. Pakistan continues to face rapid population growth and constrained fiscal capacity for sustained health and education investment, making it important to quantify the long-run relationships between these factors and longevity. Objective: To examine the long-run association of health expenditure and education with life expectancy in Pakistan, controlling for per capita income and population. Methods: Annual time-series data (1980–2022) were obtained from the World Development Indicators and the Economic Survey of Pakistan. Stationarity was assessed using Augmented Dickey–Fuller, (ADF), Dickey-fuller Generalized least square (DF-GLS), and Phillips–Perron tests (PP). Long-run elasticities were estimated using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), with Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) applied for robustness. Results: DOLS estimates showed that population (β=0.088, p=0.081), per capita income (β=0.053, p=0.021), education (β=0.072, p=0.001), and health expenditure (β=0.049, p=0.001) were positively associated with life expectancy in the long run, with strong overall model fit (R²=0.990). FMOLS and CCR results confirmed the direction and significance of these long-run relationships. Conclusion: Greater health expenditure, improved educational participation, higher income levels, and effective demographic management are associated with higher life expectancy in Pakistan, supporting sustained investment in health and education as part of long-term human development policy.